1. ALBK - Buy @ 136-138 range, SL: 136
+ves -
Technicals - Buy signal present in MACD, Above 15 Day SMA, 137 Montly pivot.
Fundamental - Results are good.
-ves-
BANKNIFTY is having negative bias.
2. BANKBARODA - Buy @ 556-559 range, SL: 554.
+ves -
Technicals - Buy signal present in MACD, Above 15 Day SMA, 137 Montly pivot.
Fundamental - Results are good.
-ves-
BANKNIFTY is having negative bias.
3. ** CROMPGREAV - Buy @ 425 to 429, SL: 423.
+ves -
Tech: Buy signal present in MACD, Above 15 Day SMA
Funda: Results looks okey.
-ves: Could not find any.
4.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Update : Trade 1: DIVISLAB
Original Link: http://mvrfuture.blogspot.com/2010/02/trade1-divislab.html
Do I need to Square Off/Hold?
Technical Indicators:
1. Markets will be range bound with negative bias.
2. Montly Stoploss: 609, Weekly Stoploss: 608, as per pivots.
3. Open Interest Increased in Futures.
Fundamental Indicators:
1. Results were below expectations.
2. Long term (more than 6 months it is good stock)
Verdict: Hold the stock as long as it is above 609. And sell when it goes below 608.
Do I need to Square Off/Hold?
Technical Indicators:
1. Markets will be range bound with negative bias.
2. Montly Stoploss: 609, Weekly Stoploss: 608, as per pivots.
3. Open Interest Increased in Futures.
Fundamental Indicators:
1. Results were below expectations.
2. Long term (more than 6 months it is good stock)
Verdict: Hold the stock as long as it is above 609. And sell when it goes below 608.
My Market View Dt: 04-Feb-2010
As per technical analysis:
Indian markets today will be mostly range bound with negative Bias.
Overall Bias : Negative till we close above 5300 on NIFTY.
Immediate Bias: Taking Support.
Immediate Resistance for the month: 5030+/-10 pts on NIFTY.
Immediate Support for the month: 4770+/-10 pts on NIFTY.
To stay in +ve Bias, market should close above 4830 today.
+ves for market:
1. FIIs bought yesterday. DIIs did not pariticipate that much.
FII Net is 396 crores. For last 10 trading sessions FIIs were Net sellers. Yesterday it turned +ve.
DII Net is 0.45 crores. For last 10 trading sessions DIIs were Net Buyers. Yesterday No participation from DIIs we can say.
2. Bullish engulfing formed.
3. We are on upward tren line in short term(Support : 4830). We are also on upward trendline for medium term (Support: 4770).
4. The results are generally okey.
-ves for market:
1. Most of the technical indicators are giving support for downward movement.
2. Most of the stocks are still below their pivot values indicating selling pressure.
As per Fundamental Analysis:
- Most of the stock have moved to higher valuations.
- There are still many mid caps available at 2007 valuations.
- As per my understanding Results and ecenomic reports are positive.
Please note that Market is Pre-Indicator for the economic cycle. Meaning, Market most of the times will absorb the news much before the news becomes a reality.
Indian markets today will be mostly range bound with negative Bias.
Overall Bias : Negative till we close above 5300 on NIFTY.
Immediate Bias: Taking Support.
Immediate Resistance for the month: 5030+/-10 pts on NIFTY.
Immediate Support for the month: 4770+/-10 pts on NIFTY.
To stay in +ve Bias, market should close above 4830 today.
+ves for market:
1. FIIs bought yesterday. DIIs did not pariticipate that much.
FII Net is 396 crores. For last 10 trading sessions FIIs were Net sellers. Yesterday it turned +ve.
DII Net is 0.45 crores. For last 10 trading sessions DIIs were Net Buyers. Yesterday No participation from DIIs we can say.
2. Bullish engulfing formed.
3. We are on upward tren line in short term(Support : 4830). We are also on upward trendline for medium term (Support: 4770).
4. The results are generally okey.
-ves for market:
1. Most of the technical indicators are giving support for downward movement.
2. Most of the stocks are still below their pivot values indicating selling pressure.
As per Fundamental Analysis:
- Most of the stock have moved to higher valuations.
- There are still many mid caps available at 2007 valuations.
- As per my understanding Results and ecenomic reports are positive.
Please note that Market is Pre-Indicator for the economic cycle. Meaning, Market most of the times will absorb the news much before the news becomes a reality.
What parameters to verify on daily basis if I am trading? -
This is follow up post for following post:
http://mvrfuture.blogspot.com/2010/02/what-parameters-to-verify-on-daily.html
My buying method is explained in the following items
http://mvrfuture.blogspot.com/2010/02/risk-management-while-trading-in-stock.html
and
http://mvrfuture.blogspot.com/2010/02/futures-trading-methodology.html
For gathering information to plan trades, I do following:
1. Morning Verification is done around 8:30 AM. Till then no need to see anything.
2. Around 10 to 11 AM NASDAQ futures will be verified.
3. And Evening 8:30 PM I will again verify the FII Data, http://icharts.in/ and http://finance.yahoo.com/
During this time I pick the stocks to trade and place the orders next day as per my observations.
4. I am planning blog those observations also here.
http://mvrfuture.blogspot.com/2010/02/what-parameters-to-verify-on-daily.html
My buying method is explained in the following items
http://mvrfuture.blogspot.com/2010/02/risk-management-while-trading-in-stock.html
and
http://mvrfuture.blogspot.com/2010/02/futures-trading-methodology.html
For gathering information to plan trades, I do following:
1. Morning Verification is done around 8:30 AM. Till then no need to see anything.
2. Around 10 to 11 AM NASDAQ futures will be verified.
3. And Evening 8:30 PM I will again verify the FII Data, http://icharts.in/ and http://finance.yahoo.com/
During this time I pick the stocks to trade and place the orders next day as per my observations.
4. I am planning blog those observations also here.
Trade1: DIVISLAB
1. Entered without following rules.
2. Entry price: 627
3. Lot size: 620
4. Targets: 633, 645
5. Price SL: 605 - Weekly pivot. Time SL: 1 week. Already 1 week is complete.
6. Holding period - Current Week.
7. Minimum Profit - 6 points, Rs. 3720, <>
8. Maximum Profit - 18 points, Rs. 11160, <>
9. Amount Invested: 77,748
What parameters to verify on daily basis if you are trading?
Have you ever thought what parameters need to be checked on dialy basis if you are a trader?
Following information can be verified everyday.
1. Before Market Hours
a) The first thing to verify is US Markets chart.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=1d&q=c&l=on&z=l&p=e8,e26,b,p&a=r14,ss,v
This chart will give idea on how the flow of sentiment is there in US markets.
To get clear picture one may have to spend little more than 10 mins watching how the bars are formed. This information will be available by 2:30 in the morning.
b) Then verify http://sgxnifty.in/ SGXNifty opens around 7 AM India time. You can check it around 8:30 AM. Takes 5 mins.
c) After this verify how asian markets are performing. By the time anybody cross checks SGXNifty they will get an Idea on how Asia is doing. But still going to http://finance.yahoo.com/ and verifying the stuff there is a better idea. This also can be done 5 to 10 mins to get a fair idea.
d) After opening, generally our markets will get influed with US Futures. One can track US Futures http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ and http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/
My observatoin is all world markets sing and dance to the tune of these parameters. Except the the fall and gain can be little more. This task need to be done every 1 hour if someone is a day trader during market hours.
e) Around 12 PM and 1 AM, one would like to go and see what happens in Europe Markets. What influence those markets will have on Indian Markets. Again can be important for day traders.
f) Finally after market closes, and one can take a break.
g) After 6 PM http://icharts.in/ gets updated with EOD data, one can go an verify the charts for his stocks in this site. And after 7 PM, FII and DII will be uploaded on BSE and NSE. http://www.bseindia.com/histdata/categorywise_turnover.asp
h) Similarly one can verify the delivery data of a particular stock, http://nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_scriphistdata.htm
Checking on this data will increase our confidence on the stock we have selected.
i) Actually there is no need to track US market at this time. But still you are curious to see, then just log on to http://finance.yahoo.com/ and see what is happening around.
Following information can be verified everyday.
1. Before Market Hours
a) The first thing to verify is US Markets chart.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=1d&q=c&l=on&z=l&p=e8,e26,b,p&a=r14,ss,v
This chart will give idea on how the flow of sentiment is there in US markets.
To get clear picture one may have to spend little more than 10 mins watching how the bars are formed. This information will be available by 2:30 in the morning.
b) Then verify http://sgxnifty.in/ SGXNifty opens around 7 AM India time. You can check it around 8:30 AM. Takes 5 mins.
c) After this verify how asian markets are performing. By the time anybody cross checks SGXNifty they will get an Idea on how Asia is doing. But still going to http://finance.yahoo.com/ and verifying the stuff there is a better idea. This also can be done 5 to 10 mins to get a fair idea.
d) After opening, generally our markets will get influed with US Futures. One can track US Futures http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ and http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/
My observatoin is all world markets sing and dance to the tune of these parameters. Except the the fall and gain can be little more. This task need to be done every 1 hour if someone is a day trader during market hours.
e) Around 12 PM and 1 AM, one would like to go and see what happens in Europe Markets. What influence those markets will have on Indian Markets. Again can be important for day traders.
f) Finally after market closes, and one can take a break.
g) After 6 PM http://icharts.in/ gets updated with EOD data, one can go an verify the charts for his stocks in this site. And after 7 PM, FII and DII will be uploaded on BSE and NSE. http://www.bseindia.com/histdata/categorywise_turnover.asp
h) Similarly one can verify the delivery data of a particular stock, http://nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_scriphistdata.htm
Checking on this data will increase our confidence on the stock we have selected.
i) Actually there is no need to track US market at this time. But still you are curious to see, then just log on to http://finance.yahoo.com/ and see what is happening around.
Risk Management while trading in Stock Futures, Can we really preserve capital trading in futures?
Can we really preserve the capital while trading in futures?
How to choose the Stock Futures?
1. Stock should be part of the Futures list obtained from NSE website here.
2. Use http://icharts.in to find stocks with following conditions.
a. Stock should be trending upwards.
b. Stock should have a buy signal in daily charts.
c. Stock should get Buy signal in real-time charts.
d. When there is not access to realtime charts, stock should have a buy signal in MACD, and it should be near and greater than the monthly pivot.
e. Stock valuations should be fundametally reasonable.
Deciding on Stop Loss
1. Stop loss for above purchase would just below the pivot value.
Anytime the stock breaks this, it would advisable to exit the stock.
Deciding on Trailing Stop Loss
1. One should enter into a trade after deciding on Stop Loss.
2. After the stock starts moving up, a trailing stop loss should be adhered. Trailing stop loss can be marked by looking at the weekly pivots, or moving average cross overs.
(OR)
3. Fix a reasonable amount from the stock at the time of trade. Generally a stock moves in the range of 1 to 3% in a day. The reasonable amount of profit would 2%*Margin. If a stock is showing firmness, then this reasonable amount will become trailing stop loss.
Money Management
1. Futures trading will become lucartive mainly because of the margin amount available.
2. If have hard cash to buy entire lot, then futures is the best way buy a stock, as it would help you to buy required quantity in 1 shot where volumes are thin in a stock.
3. But the question is in the case when you want to buy futures with limited cash, how to handle the trade. Can we preserve the capital?
The answer for this question is, capital can not be preserved without hitting stop losses.
In case of futures,
a) Develop a trading methodology and stick to the stop loss given by the trading methodology.
b) In my case the trading methodology is discussed above.
c) Capital erosion can be stopped only by following first StopLoss and then Trailing StopLoss.
d) As it is a stop loss based system, capital preservation may not be possible, but capital erosion can be stopped.
4. How much cash can be allocated for futures?
This depends on the risk taking ability of an individual. I would use additional cash that is not part of my day to day activities for trading in futures.
5. How many days a futures position can be held?
Still need to work on this question. But as of now, going on long on futures based on the pivots and moving averages is best option. Decide on Stoploss, maximum profit, and minimum profit based on the pivot values.
6. What will be brokerage costs?
Still experimenting. So, not focusing on reducing brokerage costs.
How to choose the Stock Futures?
1. Stock should be part of the Futures list obtained from NSE website here.
2. Use http://icharts.in to find stocks with following conditions.
a. Stock should be trending upwards.
b. Stock should have a buy signal in daily charts.
c. Stock should get Buy signal in real-time charts.
d. When there is not access to realtime charts, stock should have a buy signal in MACD, and it should be near and greater than the monthly pivot.
e. Stock valuations should be fundametally reasonable.
Deciding on Stop Loss
1. Stop loss for above purchase would just below the pivot value.
Anytime the stock breaks this, it would advisable to exit the stock.
Deciding on Trailing Stop Loss
1. One should enter into a trade after deciding on Stop Loss.
2. After the stock starts moving up, a trailing stop loss should be adhered. Trailing stop loss can be marked by looking at the weekly pivots, or moving average cross overs.
(OR)
3. Fix a reasonable amount from the stock at the time of trade. Generally a stock moves in the range of 1 to 3% in a day. The reasonable amount of profit would 2%*Margin. If a stock is showing firmness, then this reasonable amount will become trailing stop loss.
Money Management
1. Futures trading will become lucartive mainly because of the margin amount available.
2. If have hard cash to buy entire lot, then futures is the best way buy a stock, as it would help you to buy required quantity in 1 shot where volumes are thin in a stock.
3. But the question is in the case when you want to buy futures with limited cash, how to handle the trade. Can we preserve the capital?
The answer for this question is, capital can not be preserved without hitting stop losses.
In case of futures,
a) Develop a trading methodology and stick to the stop loss given by the trading methodology.
b) In my case the trading methodology is discussed above.
c) Capital erosion can be stopped only by following first StopLoss and then Trailing StopLoss.
d) As it is a stop loss based system, capital preservation may not be possible, but capital erosion can be stopped.
4. How much cash can be allocated for futures?
This depends on the risk taking ability of an individual. I would use additional cash that is not part of my day to day activities for trading in futures.
5. How many days a futures position can be held?
Still need to work on this question. But as of now, going on long on futures based on the pivots and moving averages is best option. Decide on Stoploss, maximum profit, and minimum profit based on the pivot values.
6. What will be brokerage costs?
Still experimenting. So, not focusing on reducing brokerage costs.
Futures - Trading Methodology
After all the research, I was able to conclude following points.
1. Futures can be traded like how stocks can be traded with Pivots, and moving avergae lines.
2. The major advantage with futures is, we can buy stocks in bulk when we have physical cash.
3. Futures can be shorted.
4. Futures can be traded in 189 shares available in NIFTY.
Dangers with Futures:
1. Futures can erode cash quickly, if we are leveraging our position.
2. Need to check if brokerage firm will charge any interest on leveraged amount.
1. Futures can be traded like how stocks can be traded with Pivots, and moving avergae lines.
2. The major advantage with futures is, we can buy stocks in bulk when we have physical cash.
3. Futures can be shorted.
4. Futures can be traded in 189 shares available in NIFTY.
Dangers with Futures:
1. Futures can erode cash quickly, if we are leveraging our position.
2. Need to check if brokerage firm will charge any interest on leveraged amount.
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