Caution + Safe Harbour Statement

Investment in futures is very risky business. Request to readers is not to consider the information provided in this blog as investment advise. It is safe to do your own research before making any buying and selling in market.



I don't own responsibility for your actions.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Risk Management while trading in Stock Futures, Can we really preserve capital trading in futures?

Can we really preserve the capital while trading in futures?

How to choose the Stock Futures?
1. Stock should be part of the Futures list obtained from NSE website here.
2. Use http://icharts.in to find stocks with following conditions.
a. Stock should be trending upwards.
b. Stock should have a buy signal in daily charts.
c. Stock should get Buy signal in real-time charts.
d. When there is not access to realtime charts, stock should have a buy signal in MACD, and it should be near and greater than the monthly pivot.
e. Stock valuations should be fundametally reasonable.
Deciding on Stop Loss
1. Stop loss for above purchase would just below the pivot value.
Anytime the stock breaks this, it would advisable to exit the stock.

Deciding on Trailing Stop Loss
1. One should enter into a trade after deciding on Stop Loss.
2. After the stock starts moving up, a trailing stop loss should be adhered. Trailing stop loss can be marked by looking at the weekly pivots, or moving average cross overs.
(OR)
3. Fix a reasonable amount from the stock at the time of trade. Generally a stock moves in the range of 1 to 3% in a day. The reasonable amount of profit would 2%*Margin. If a stock is showing firmness, then this reasonable amount will become trailing stop loss.

Money Management
1. Futures trading will become lucartive mainly because of the margin amount available.

2. If have hard cash to buy entire lot, then futures is the best way buy a stock, as it would help you to buy required quantity in 1 shot where volumes are thin in a stock.

3. But the question is in the case when you want to buy futures with limited cash, how to handle the trade. Can we preserve the capital?
The answer for this question is, capital can not be preserved without hitting stop losses.
In case of futures,
a) Develop a trading methodology and stick to the stop loss given by the trading methodology.
b) In my case the trading methodology is discussed above.
c) Capital erosion can be stopped only by following first StopLoss and then Trailing StopLoss.
d) As it is a stop loss based system, capital preservation may not be possible, but capital erosion can be stopped.

4. How much cash can be allocated for futures?
This depends on the risk taking ability of an individual. I would use additional cash that is not part of my day to day activities for trading in futures.

5. How many days a futures position can be held?
Still need to work on this question. But as of now, going on long on futures based on the pivots and moving averages is best option. Decide on Stoploss, maximum profit, and minimum profit based on the pivot values.

6. What will be brokerage costs?
Still experimenting. So, not focusing on reducing brokerage costs.

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